Predictors of liver failure in primary biliary cirrhosis

BACKGROUND The disease progression of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) varies significantly, and the prognostic markers that identify those patients who will develop liver failure have been scarcely studied from a Chinese cohort. Aims. We aimed to determine the predictive factors of liver failure in patients with PBC. METHODS Patients who were first diagnosed as PBC with hepatic compensation between January 2007 and December 2009 were enrolled in this cohort study. RESULTS Altogether 398 patients were finally included. Of these patients, 80% were women, 98% had positive antimitochondrial antibodies, and 45% had positive antinuclear antibodies (ANA). To December 2012, a total of 38 patients developed liver failure. According to the outcome, patients who developed liver failure had had higher serum concentration of baseline total bilirubin (TBil) (p = 0.013) and total bile acid (TBA) (p < 0.001), and lower concentrations of baseline total cholesterol (Tch) (p = 0.008), than patients who did not develop liver failure. Additionally, the proportion of ANA positivity was statistically different between the two groups (p = 0.009). In the established model for predicting liver failure in PBC, three variables were finally selected out, including Tch (odds ratio (OR) 0.552, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.394-0.774, p < 0.001), TBA (OR 1.006, 95% CI 1.002-1.010, p = 0.002), and ANA (+ versus -, OR 5.518, 95% CI 1.155-26.376, p = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS ANA, Tch, and TBA are predictors of liver failure in PBC.